Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary
Survey conducted March 1-3, 2024, among 3,804 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
We are no longer updating this tracker given former President Donald Trump's status as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee following the Super Tuesday contests. For our ongoing tracking of the broader race shaping up between Trump and President Joe Biden, go to our 2024 General Election Tracker.
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Key Takeaways
Trump maintains big lead over Haley nationwide: Ahead of Super Tuesday, Trump is backed by 82% of potential Republican primary voters, compared with 17% for his only remaining challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. That 65-percentage-point advantage marks one of Trump’s largest advantages of the campaign following 66-point leads earlier last week.
Haley’s popularity remains low: Haley’s net favorability rating has returned to a record low in our ongoing tracking since December 2022. According to the latest survey, potential primary voters are only 5 points more likely to hold favorable views than unfavorable ones, with more than 2 in 5 now viewing her negatively. Meanwhile, the GOP electorate is more likely than ever (14 points) to say what they’re hearing about her is mostly negative.
About Morning Consult's Capabilities
Where does this data come from? We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, enabling daily tracking of nearly 1,200 Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Why survey daily? High-frequency survey research allows us to generate larger sample sizes and shed light on key demographic groups, with more consistency and stability. Scroll below for more on our methodology.
Tracking Republicans’ 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- The vast majority of the GOP’s electorate (82%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today. Haley is backed by 17% of potential primary voters, while 2% would back someone else.
- Trump is weakest among the politically independent, higher-educated and older voters in the GOP’s coalition, but still maintains a significant advantage over Haley with these voters.
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates
Latest survey conducted Mar. 2-4, 2024, among 837 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Trump is popular with 79% of the party’s potential electorate, while 19% view him unfavorably. The latest figures are in line with where Trump started 2024.
- Haley is viewed favorably by 46% of potential primary voters, while 41% hold unfavorable views. It marks one of her worst net favorability ratings since our tracking began in December 2022.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Latest survey conducted Mar. 2-4, 2024, among 837 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about a candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- Potential GOP primary voters were more likely to report having recently heard something positive (40%) than negative (34%) about Trump, while the share who heard anything at all about him subdued a bit in advance of Super Tuesday.
- As she faces a tough set of contests this week, potential Republican primary voters were far more likely to hear something negative (39%) than positive (24%) about Haley, marking her worst net buzz since our tracking began.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on the 2024 Republican presidential primary race reflect surveys conducted Mar. 1-3, 2024. The results reflect responses among 3,804 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. The results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
